Local Forecasts to 2050
As directed by Minnesota Statutes §473.146 and §473.859, the Metropolitan Council must forecast where, when, and how much population, household, and job growth is expected within the seven-county region over a 30-year horizon. These long-range forecasts provide a shared foundation for coordinated regional and local planning, regional infrastructure investments, and other policy and service considerations.
Local forecasts are adopted at the start of each 10-year planning cycle. The current set of local forecasts were adopted with the latest regional development guide, Imagine 2050, in February 2025. Local forecasts are only revised through official action by the Metropolitan Council.
Future growth is expected across the region
The current regional forecast describes expected gains in population (+657,000), households (+324,000), and jobs (+ 342,000) over the next 30 years. Local forecasting distributes regional growth to specific places.
Key findings
A more detailed description of where local growth is expected—and its implications—is presented in Imagine 2050. In brief, local forecasts show growth will occur in all areas of the region by 2050. We've analyzed these trends using Metropolitan Councils' Community Designations, planning categories assigned to each city and township based on development patterns and other characteristics.
- The region’s Suburban Edge communities will add the largest numbers of residents between 2020 and 2050 (273,000) and will experience the fastest rate of growth at 35%.
- Suburban designated communities will add 138,000 residents, an increase of 16%.
- Urban communities will grow mainly through redevelopment and infill and will add 139,000 residents (+15%).
- Urban Edge communities will add 58,000 residents (+13%).
- Rural communities (which includes Rural Centers) will add 42,000 residents (+25%).
RELATED VIDEO
Principal forecaster Todd Graham described local forecasting and key findings to the Land Use Advisory Committee on May 16, 2024.
Watch the presentation video or view the slide deck (PDF).
Where to find local forecasts to 2050
Additional modeling at a local scale is needed to distribute regional growth to specific places. We use UrbanSim, a real estate market and land use modeling tool, to develop our local forecasts. This model considers:
- Likelihood of new development
- Local government policies like allowed land uses, density, and land supply
- Regional infrastructure and systems—for example, existing and planned wastewater and transit service availability
- What matters to people and employers when making location choices—for example, amenities and access to relevant destinations
Preliminary local forecasts are shared with local governments for review and comment. The final set of local forecasts are adopted by the Metropolitan Council. Community development staff work with local governments to revise local forecasts as expectations and local comprehensive plans evolve over the 10-year planning cycle.
Thrive MSP 2040 local forecasts
The local forecasts to 2050 adopted in February 2025 are now the official forecasts used by the Metropolitan Council for regional system planning.
However, the local forecasts adopted with the previous regional development guide, Thrive MSP 2040, remain the official forecasts for local governments until their comprehensive plan update is adopted by the Metropolitan Council. (Local comprehensive plan updates must be submitted by December 2028.) No further revisions will be made to the local forecasts to 2040 but local governments may request adjustments to their forecasts through comprehensive plan amendments.