Regional Forecast to 2050

Announcements

    The next regional forecast update will be published in August 2026.

As directed by Minnesota Statutes §473.146 and §473.859, the Metropolitan Council must forecast how much population, household, and job growth is expected in the seven-county region over a 30-year horizon. This long-range forecast provides a shared foundation for coordinated regional and local planning, regional infrastructure investments, and other policy and service considerations. We update the regional forecast about every two years.

The Regional Forecast: 2023 Update

Macro-level trends affect regional growth

The 2023 regional forecast update reported lower population, household, and job growth to 2050 compared with previous forecast results. The slower, and lower, overall growth expected in our region is related to how the COVID-19 pandemic broadly changed economic and demographic patterns:

  • Like other US metros, the Twin Cities has experienced higher mortality rates (due to COVID-19 as well as overall aging of the population), lower birth rates, and reduced international immigration.
  • Our ability to attract new residents to the Twin Cities region was – and remains – strongly tied to economic opportunities. Other US metros may draw newcomers based on non-economic considerations like warm weather, for example.
  • Following the COVID-19 pandemic, many US metros also have low unemployment and high wage growth, leveling out what was once a key competitive advantage for the Twin Cities region.

Key findings

  • The Twin Cities will continue to grow, but at a slower pace: The region will gain 657,000 residents between 2020 and 2050, bringing the total population to 3,820,000.
  • Two concurrent, demographic shifts will take place by 2050: The aging of the region's baby boomers and rapid growth of Black, Asian, and Latine populations. These trends will transform schools and workplaces.
  • Future job growth is constrained by workforce supply. Older adults delaying retirement, immigration, long-distance remote workers, and commuters will fill jobs and help offset losses as the baby boomers leave the workforce, but just barely.
RELATED VIDEO

Principal forecaster Todd Graham presented the 2023 update to the regional forecast to the Metropolitan Council on April 5, 2023.

Watch the presentation video or view the slide deck (PDF).

SUMMARY
The Regional Forecast Report: 2023 Update (5-page PDF) describes these key findings in greater depth.

Table: Population, Household, and Job Growth Expected by 2050
  2020 2030 2040 2050
Population 3,163,000 3,364,000 3,555,000 3,820,000
Household 1,239,525 1,357,300 1,454,300 1,563,100
Employment 1,581,000 1,802,000 1,895,000 2,074,000

Last updated: April 2023.

Where to find the regional forecast to 2050

How we develop the regional forecast

Community development researchers use an integrated regional economic and demographic modeling tool called REMI PI to develop the regional forecast. This model considers the Twin Cities region's position within the broader national economy.

More specifically, the model assesses our region's economic growth and competitiveness, and how likely it is to attract people currently living elsewhere in the US or abroad (known as economic migration). Attracting new residents to our region is crucial to long-term regional growth, particularly as our current population ages in the coming decades.

REPORT
Forecasts to 2050: Methods (10-page PDF) describes how we use the REMI PI model to forecast regional growth in more detail.

Our local forecasts to 2050 describe where the expected population, household, and job growth is likely to take place within the Twin Cities region.

Regional and Local Forecasts

Todd Graham
Principal Forecaster
Policy Support and Development Team
Community Development Research
[email protected]