Forecasts and Estimates
Community development researchers develop new sources of information with modeling tools and statistical techniques. This work results in accurate, consistent data products that:
- Support long-range planning
- Inform policy decisions and resource allocation
- Highlight regional trends that matter to the Twin Cities region's growth, development, and economy—now and in the future
Our most important modeling "input" comes from humans, however. We collaborate with local jurisdictions, state agencies, and research peers at other planning organizations to continuously improve these datasets.
Related information
Regional Forecast to 2050
The regional forecast describes how much population, household, and job growth is expected in the seven-county region over a 30-year horizon. The most recent regional forecast was published in 2023, and it is updated about every two years.
Community development researchers use a model that assesses the Twin Cities' economic growth and competitiveness within the national economy. Essentially, the model predicts how likely our regional economy is to attract people living elsewhere (economic migration). This dynamic—along with the natural population growth of the current population—are the key drivers of regional growth expectations.
Local Forecasts to 2050
Local forecasts describe when, where, and how much population, household, and job growth is expected within the Twin Cities region over a 30-year horizon. They are adopted at the beginning of each 10-year planning cycle, and only revised through official action by the Metropolitan Council.
Local forecasts are created by distributing the regional forecast to specific places. This modeling effort considers local policies, development trends, and how people and employers make location choices.
Population and Household Estimates
We prepare estimated counts of population and households annually for cities, townships, and counties to inform state funding decisions. These estimates have a one-year lag. The most recent population and household estimates were published in July 2025 and describe population and households in 2024.
Population and household estimates start with an in-depth analysis of changes in housing stock. Then, we estimate the number and size of households and individuals living in all occupied units by housing type.
Regional Park and Trail Use Estimates
In partnership with regional park implementing agencies, community development researchers estimate annual visits to the Regional Parks and Trails System. These estimates describe visitation trends over time and are used to allocate some Metropolitan Council grant funds. These estimates have a one-year lag. The most recent park and trail use estimates were published in July 2025 and describe estimated visits in 2024.
Park and trail use estimates involve both on-site data collection and data modeling. Estimates average several years of data to reduce the effects of extreme weather, temporary closures, or new facility additions in any single year.
Housing Stock Estimates
To create the inputs needed for our annual population and household estimates, community development researchers develop a count of housing units by type at the local level. Housing stock estimates have a one-year lag. The most current dataset was published in July 2025 and describes the housing stock in 2024.
Housing stock estimates start with the count of all housing units from the most recent decennial census (now 2020). Units are then added or subtracted based on residential development activity provided by local governments and other secondary data sources.
HOUSING STOCK ESTIMATES PAGE COMING IN JULY 2026
Housing Affordability Estimates
"Housing affordability" describes the relationship between housing costs and household incomes. The most recent housing affordability estimates were published in April 2026 and describe housing affordability in 2024.
Community development researchers prepare annual estimates that express the cost of all housing units and the income of all households as shares of Area Median Income (AMI). AMI is a measure of median income for family households in the Twin Cities metro calculated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ESTIMATES PAGE COMING IN MAY 2026